Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas at the WCPT 820AM Chicago Mayoral Forum on January 26, 2023 in Chicago, Ill. (George Burns for WCPT 820AM)

The city of Chicago is about to elect a new mayor this week, and the contest is shaping up to be closer than expected as voters will have their final chance to cast their ballots in the runoff on April 4.

Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas has been polling well for several consecutive weeks even before the race was narrowed down to him and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. But as recently as last Monday, a Victory Research poll had the progressive Johnson within the margin of error of Vallas.

Public safety has been the main concern for most in the city since rising crime rates and police vacancies have plagued current Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s term. In a survey from WGN, 52% of participants listed crime as their most important issue concerning them today. Vallas has the support of the Fraternal Order of Police, and he has routinely promised to fill the mounting CPD vacancies. In an interview with The New York Times, the FOP’s Chicago Lodge 7 President John Catanzara promised more police vacancies and bloodshed if Johnson were to prevail.

“If this guy [Johnson] gets in we’re going to see an exodus like we’ve never seen before, blood in the streets,” Catanzara told the Times.

Vallas has been criticized for his involvement with the polarizing Catanzara, who has a history of incendiary public comments including calling Muslims “savages that all deserve a bullet” and defending the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Despite leaning on his promises to rebuild the damaged relationship between the mayor’s office and the CPD, Vallas has continually downplayed his relationship with Catanzara.

On the other side of the issue, Johnson has been criticized by his opponents for his statements about defunding the police and his desire for this to be a “political goal.” Johnson has downplayed these comments and pointed to his safety plan which calls for promoting 200 new detectives from within the police department. He has also promised to not cut CPD’s budget “one penny” if elected.

The other main issue in this race is education, which both candidates have a long history within the city of Chicago. As the former CEO of Chicago Public Schools and budget director under Mayor Richard Daley in the 1990s, Vallas has called for redirecting school funds and focusing on setting up work study programs. Johnson is a long-time community activist and labor organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union and has called for more funding for schools.

Both candidates did well in the northern neighborhoods of Chicago during the general election, and it will be a matter of which candidate is able to secure more of the South and West sides. Those areas were carried mostly by Lightfoot and Jesus “Chuy” García, who finished third (17% of vote) and fourth (14% of vote) in the general election respectively. García has endorsed Johnson; Lightfoot has not made a public endorsement in the race.

Disclaimer: Brandon Johnson previously hosted a weekend program, “Sunday Mornings with Brandon Johnson,” on WCPT 820AM prior to his mayoral campaign. This has not influenced and will not influence Heartland Signal’s editorial process in covering the 2023 Chicago mayoral election.