(Source: Mandela Barnes on Facebook)

Wisconsin’s primary has come and gone and there’s now less than 85 days until the Nov. 8 general election, so if you haven’t noticed from political ads plastering every corner of your existence here in this pivotal swing state, it is officially the general election midterm campaign season. 

That means it’s a perfect time for a new edition of the Marquette University Law School Poll.

Before diving into the results, we must remind you that The Recombobulation Area is hosting an event with Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, next Wednesday at Dandy on West Vliet Street in Milwaukee. The event will begin at 6 p.m. and we’ll go over the results of the latest poll and talk about the upcoming midterms and all the ins and outs of polling in Wisconsin. There will even be a cash bar! And the event is free (FREE!) You should really come. It’ll be a good time.

OK, on to the breakdown.

First, the highlights. Here are the results for the general election matchups.

In the race for U.S. Senate:

Mandela Barnes: 51%
Ron Johnson: 44%
Undecided: 3%

In the race for governor:

Tony Evers: 45%
Tim Michels: 43%
Joan Beglinger: 7%
Undecided: 3%

In a general sense, both candidates who won their respective primaries saw a bump in polling. Tim Michels closed the gap against Evers, from a seven-point margin in June (48%-41%) to just a two-point margin in August. And Mandela Barnes opened up a larger lead, from a two-point lead in June (46-44%) to a seven-point lead in August. 

But what do we make of each of these individual results? Let’s take them one at a time.

BARNES VS. JOHNSON

Across the board, this is a really good poll for the lieutenant governor from Milwaukee. Barnes not only opened up a larger lead overall, his lead among independents grew to 52% to 38%, a fairly significant 14-point margin ahead of Wisconsin’s senior Senator. Barnes also polled way ahead with moderate voters, 66% to 30%. 

Barnes’ favorability rating in the poll was also very strong, with 37% favorable and 22% unfavorable (with 30% who “haven’t heard enough”). 

In the head-to-head matchup with Johnson, Barnes polled especially well among women voters, ahead 62% to 35%. Which, of course, means that Johnson did well with men, 54% to Barnes’ 39%. There continues to be a huge gender gap between the two parties in just about all instances in Wisconsin. That is going to be an especially big deal this year, post-Dobbs. 

The lieutenant governor has been emphasizing his working class roots in his campaign, and there is a distinct divide between the candidates on support at various income levels. For those with an income under $40,000, he’s up 58% to Johnson’s 37%. Numbers were similar for the $40,000 to $74,000 income range. But for those making over $75,000, it’s Barnes 49% to Johnson 47%. 

Regionally, Johnson has a six-point edge in the Milwaukee suburbs, an eight-point edge in the Green Bay/Appleton media market, and a one-point edge in the “Rest of state” group. Barnes will have to work on expanding his support beyond Democratic strongholds, but within those Democratic strongholds, Barnes is putting up big margins. In the Madison media market, he’s up 67%-30% over Johnson, and in the city of Milwaukee (a smaller sample size, it should be noted), he’s up 71% to 25% – ahead of Evers, in both cases. 

Some say not to judge anyone by their best day or by their worst day, so it would be wrong to draw every conclusion possible from one great poll. But this is Mandela Barnes’ best poll yet, and it comes at a good time for his campaign, as focus shifts squarely to the general election race. It also comes on the heels of him consolidating support among the Democratic candidates running for Senate, receiving the endorsement of every big name Democrat and liberal group in Wisconsin, and getting a head start on the general. Perhaps that pre-primary maneuvering, with top challengers dropping out and endorsing Barnes, helped the Democrat’s candidacy at this stage of the race. 

To be sure: One poll does not change the larger dynamics of this race. Prognosticators are saying Ron Johnson is the favorite, and given the history of midterm elections and the unpopularity of President Joe Biden in the state (his approval rating is at just 40%), Republicans are still going to have the advantage in swing states like Wisconsin. Johnson has overperformed expectations before, and despite being an anti-vaccine, election denying, donor-dealing, false elector handling, conspiracy theorizing caricature of a far-right Republican, he has proven to be a strong general election candidate in this state, and should not be underestimated in this campaign. 

However, there are reasons to believe he’s in a precarious position (we’ll get there.) And there are reasons to believe Mandela Barnes is in a stronger spot than some might have expected him to be in at this stage of the race. I tend to believe Barnes has a better chance at pulling off the upset than most. 

But this is Wisconsin. We know just about every statewide race is going to come down to the wire. With this as our starting point for the general election race, it’s going to be fascinating to follow which trends emerge as the key areas where things shift over the next three months. But based on these results and what’s happening nationally, Barnes is in better shape and Johnson is in worse shape at this stage of the race.

EVERS VS. MICHELS (VS. BEGLINGER?)

Following a brutal primary that saw Trump-backed Michels defeat former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch to become the Republican nominee, the general election is now set. Michels saw a boost in his head-to-head numbers against the Democratic governor, but remains slightly behind. 

The larger dynamics are not dissimilar from what we broke down in the Barnes-Johnson race. Women, people with lower incomes, and moderates favor the Democratic candidate. Evers is ahead with independents, but not to the degree that Barnes is, just 41% to Michels’ 37%.

But therein lies a slight problem with this polling matchup. There’s the first introduction of independent candidate Joan Beglinger to the mix, and she polled fairly well for a third-party candidate at 7%. A quick tour of her campaign website will show you that she sounds a lot like most Republicans these days, with categories like “Abortion is Not Healthcare” and “Our Dishonest Media.” So, how does giving the option of an “independent” candidate change the results, and what can we really learn from this? That’s something we’ll be asking Mr. Franklin at our event next week, but there are a few areas where Beglinger polled relatively well: She’s at 12% with independents, moderates, and the 30-44 age group. 

The bottom line for this is that Evers has a slight edge, Michels closed a bit of the gap after his primary victory, and much like the Senate race (and every other statewide race in Wisconsin, for that matter), this is gonna be close.

RON JOHNSON IS VERY UNPOPULAR

Ron Johnson is a Republican senator running for re-election in a state Joe Biden won in 2020. In fact, he’s the only senator with this unique distinction. That makes him vulnerable, and a target for Democrats to flip a Senate seat.

Also making him vulnerable: His favorability numbers. Ron Johnson is not particularly well-liked.

Much has been made of this. Craig Gilbert wrote a breakdown of this earlier this year in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, saying “Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 — a stretch of 61 statewide polls.”

His favorable number registered at 38% in the newest poll (with a 47% unfavorable) and has been below 40% for several years now. 

As we have repeatedly noted here at The Recombobulation Area in our various breakdowns of the Marquette poll, a rather high number of voters had “no opinion” of the senior Senator. That number was above 30% when he was re-elected in 2016, and remained that high into late 2019. That’s changed, of course, and as more people have gotten to know Ron Johnson, post-2020. That “no opinion” number has gone down to just 15%, and his unfavorable number has climbed simultaneously. Times of crisis can be character-revealing, and Johnson sure has shown us who he is over the past few years. 

So now, just a few short months away from an election that could give him another six-year term, where is Johnson particularly vulnerable?

Among women, he is a net minus-26, with just 30% favorable to 56% unfavorable. 

He’s at just 20% favorable among moderates, a net minus-44, with 64% unfavorable. With independents, he’s at just 31% favorable to 46% unfavorable. 

Johnson is under water in every age group. He’s actually faring the worst among the 60+ age group, just 37% favorable to 54% unfavorable. 

He’s under water at every income level, faring the worst with those making less than $40,000 per year, 25% favorable to 49% unfavorable. 

There’s even a whiff of uncertainty around Johnson among those who “lean” Republican, where 57% in that group see him favorably, and 24% combined are in the “haven’t heard enough” and “don’t know” categories. Compare that to Tony Evers, who is viewed favorably by 82% of those who “lean” Democratic, and just 11% are in those “no opinion” categories. Unlike Evers, Johnson actually had a challenger in the primary, and while he obviously won, the unknown Republican David Schroeder received 16% of the vote in the race. More than 100,000 Republicans voted against Ron Johnson in the primary! That’s not altering the race, of course, but it’s also not nothing.

Johnson is vulnerable. He has a lot of work to do to rebuild his standing with voters outside of a far right (88% favorable among the “very conservative” ideological group), largely male (46%-38% with men) base. 

The inherent polarization of a 50-50 state like Wisconsin will pull most Republican-leaning voters his way throughout the campaign. There’s a certain inevitably to that. But Johnson is a deeply flawed candidate who has turned off a whole lot of people over the past two-plus years with his words and actions. For many, this race will be a referendum on Johnson. And given these quite poor poll results, that’s a race he could certainly lose.

OVERWHELMING ABORTION NUMBERS

The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade has made abortion one of the top issues in the midterm election. So it is particularly notable when a result on a top issue is as overwhelming as this one is.

Following the Dobbs ruling, Wisconsin defaulted to an 1849 criminal abortion ban, which includes no exceptions in cases of rape or incest, only for instances where the life of the mother is threatened (and even then, it’s problematically unclear). While that law is being challenged by the state Supreme Court (and being delayed by Republicans), it is particularly notable just how overwhelming the numbers are in this poll result, which are at odds with the 1849 law. 

The Republican-controlled state legislature refused to revisit the law after Roe was overturned, blocking Gov. Evers’ special session. Republican gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels has said he supports “an exact mirror of the 1849 law.”

Republican leaders in Wisconsin are way out of the mainstream on this issue. Even 79% of Republican voters say there should be exceptions for rape and incest. Tim Michels and legislative leaders have adopted an extreme position on a top issue in an election year, and especially after the vote in Kansas, where voters in a deep red state came out in droves to protect abortion rights, it’s a position that’s going to cause problems for them on the campaign trail. 

VOTERS SUPPORT PAID FAMILY LEAVE

Often in these breakdowns of Marquette polls, we’ll note a certain policy that has overwhelming support with voters, but little support in the state legislature. This has been the case with abortion rights, as just mentioned, but also over the years with gun violence prevention, marijuana legalization, Medicaid expansion, and a host of other issues that are getting ignored by the entrenched Republican majority in the state. 

Add another to the list: 78% of voters favor providing paid family leave for mothers and fathers of new babies. Democrats favor this more strongly (90% in favor) than Republicans (65% in favor), but this is a policy that has broad support among both parties. 

THE “ENTHUSIASM GAP” IS CLOSING

The last poll from Marquette suggested that there was an “enthusiasm gap” in this election. But that poll arrived just before the Dobbs ruling, which has upended the midterms.

Now, there’s only a slight edge for Republicans in enthusiasm for voting. In June, 67% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting. Now, that is 74% for Republicans and 69% for Democrats. 

Another poll question asked about the likelihood of voting, and the partisan split was nonexistent there, with 83% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats saying they are “absolutely certain” they will vote this fall. 

This is no longer looking like an election with a distinct “enthusiasm gap” between the two parties. Both are pretty fired up.

WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS CAN’T QUIT 2020 ELECTION TRUTHERISM

After a 14-month “investigation” that “produced no evidence of fraud” and “accomplished nothing” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos finally fired Michael Gableman. Not because he didn’t find anything, of course, but because he campaigned against Vos in a primary that proved to be surprisingly competitive. 

Gableman and the Office of the Special Council might now be finished with their election review/grift, but election trutherism among Wisconsin’s Republican voters lives on.

Now, more than 20 months since the 2020 election, more than 60% of Republicans lack confidence in the results. This is simply astonishing. No amount of evidence is going to change the views of the majority of the party that has entirely bought into a dangerous and insulting conspiracy theory about a lie of a stolen election. 

It’s just a very significant amount of Republican voters who still believe these outright lies. Among “very conservative” voters, 48% said they are “not at all confident” that the “votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election,” something that has been endlessly proven to be the case. That this has gone on so long is a real problem.

For Democrats, 95% are confident in the results. Among independents, it’s nearly 70%. Only among Republicans do you have a majority questioning basic facts about our democratic process. 

The slippery slope is still right there in front of us, and Wisconsin is just two elections away from sliding down into an undemocratic abyss. The stakes for these fall midterms in Wisconsin remain extremely high.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s also written for The Daily Beast, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He’s won 13 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.