Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis. (Source: Jake Pfaffenroth on Flickr via Creative Commons 2.0)

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll was just released, and as with every new version of the poll, there’s much to discuss from the results. 

Of particular interest this time are the partisan primaries for the two top statewide races in Wisconsin this year, where Republicans will challenge Tony Evers in the race for governor and Democrats will challenge Ron Johnson (who we just learned tried to overturn the election and then blamed it on an intern). There’s less than 50 days until the primary (Aug. 9! Register! Plan ahead!), so let’s dive in.

THE PRIMARY POLLS

First, let’s take a look at the results for the top races for who voters would choose.

For governor (Republican primary):

  • Tim Michels: 27%
  • Rebecca Kleefisch: 26%
  • Kevin Nicholson: 10%
  • Tim Ramthun: 3%
  • Undecided: 32%

For senator (Democratic primary): 

  • Mandela Barnes: 25%
  • Alex Lasry: 21%
  • Sarah Godlewski: 9%
  • Tom Nelson: 7%
  • Undecided 36%

Both races have a few things in common: They’re both going to be competitive, and there are still a whole lot of undecided voters. In neither race is there a frontrunner who is running away with it. There’s going to be a whole lot of campaigning between now and Aug. 9.

Each race now also has a top two that has separated themselves from the pack. It’s Michels and Kleefisch in the Republican gubernatorial race, and Barnes and Lasry in the Senate race.

For Republicans, this poll is of particular interest because it is the first with Michels in the race. The number of undecideds in the GOP primary dropped from 46% in April to 32% in June, and essentially all those undecideds went Michels’ way. Kleefisch’s number even went down six percentage points — 32% in April to 26% in June — while Nicholson and Ramthun’s respective level of support remained unchanged. Michels got the Trump endorsement and is clearly on the rise, but let’s see what happens now that the spotlight is going to shine a little brighter. His last time in the political spotlight like this was when he ran for U.S. Senate in 2004, and needless to say, much has changed since then.

On the Democratic side, the shift for undecideds was somewhat evenly spread out among the candidates. Going from 48% to 36% in the “don’t know” column (and the “will not vote” crowd going from 3% to 0%) resulted in two-point increases for Godlewski and Nelson, a five-point increase for Lasry, and a six-point increase for Barnes, the latter of whom reversed a slight decline from February to April.

Barnes came into this race the frontrunner, but not an overwhelming one, and Lasry has solidified his position as the top challenger. Godlewski has made gains in recent months, but she is still well behind, and Nelson is even further behind. Unless either candidate can make significant moves in a short amount of time, this looks to be a race between the top two. 

Bottom line for both primaries: These are going to be very competitive races. As it always does, Wisconsin will have its turn in the national political spotlight, with most primaries being decided well before August, and Kleefisch/Michels and Barnes/Lasry will be incredibly fascinating campaigns to watch. 

REPUBLICANS VS. EVERS

For the first time in this election cycle, the Marquette poll included hypothetical head-to-head matchups among the top candidates running against the incumbents. Here’s how that shakes out for the Republicans against Gov. Tony Evers.

  • Michels: 41% – Evers: 48%
  • Kleefisch: 43% – Evers: 47%
  • Nicholson: 40% – Evers: 48%
  • Ramthun: 34% – Evers: 51%

Among the two incumbents (Evers and Ron Johnson) at this stage of the race, Evers is in a better position to be re-elected of the two. That could change, obviously, and the larger dynamics of the midterms are not favorable to Democrats. But as we’ve been noting for poll after poll now, Evers continues to be on solid ground. His approval (+3, $8%-45%) and favorability (+2, 44%-42%) ratings far outpace his fellow Democrat, President Joe Biden, who is -17 for approval rating (40%-57%) and -12 for favorability (42%-54%). 

Where Evers is doing particularly well is with moderate voters. Here’s where Evers stands against his potential competition among those ideological moderates:

  • Michels: 22% – Evers: 61%
  • Kleefisch: 26% – Evers: 60%
  • Nicholson: 20% – Evers: 61%
  • Ramthun: 19% – Evers: 63%

Quite the difference. Evers also has big leads among independent voters, too. Perhaps this is part of the primary process where candidates are working to win over their base and then will move back to the center for the general election, but Wisconsin Republicans have been flirting with the deep end for quite some time, and that could cost them some voters in November. Evers is a moderate himself, the state has a whole lot of moderate voters, and he is way ahead with those voters. 

Another area where Evers has a big lead is with women. This is nothing new, but the gender gap in Wisconsin politics is sizable. 

  • Michels: 32% – Evers: 58%
  • Kleefisch: 35% – Evers: 55%
  • Nicholson: 33% – Evers: 57%
  • Ramthun: 27% – Evers: 60%

And yet, this is Wisconsin. Every race is decided by a razor-thin margin, and this one probably will be, too. But considering the larger dynamics for Democrats nationwide, Evers is in much better shape than some might expect. 

DEMOCRATS VS. JOHNSON

The race to unseat Ron Johnson is going to attract a ton of attention nationally this year, as Wisconsin’s senior Senator continues to remain in the headlines — like this week, when it was revealed in Tuesday’s Jan. 6 Committee hearing that he offered to hand-deliver fake electors to Vice President Mike Pence as part of the effort to overturn the presidential election results, and then spent the day stepping on rakes trying to spin it and blame it on an intern. Next week, who knows what it could be? But as longtime Recombobulation Area readers know, we think Johnson has shown himself to be a uniquely terrible Senator, time and time again.

So, for many voters, this race will be a referendum on Johnson. It will be important, then, to take a closer look at these head-to-head matchups on who is not only positioned to win the primary, but to compete well against the Republican senator. Here’s how those poll results unfolded in that matchup:

  • Barnes: 46% – Johnson: 44%
  • Lasry: 42% – Johnson: 45%
  • Godlewski: 45% – Johnson: 43%
  • Nelson: 44% – Johnson: 43%

Notably, Lasry is the only candidate trailing Johnson in the head-to-head matchups. He’s also behind the other candidates in the head-to-head matchups among independents (and about even with Godlewski). 

Barnes, however, has a slight edge against Johnson among independents (29%-28%), and is the only candidate ahead of the incumbent on this measure. Barnes is also way ahead of Johnson among moderates — 57%-28% — even as much of the criticism of the lieutenant governor has been focused on whether or not he’s too far to the left. That’s actually better than Lasry among moderates, who has taken a decidedly more centrist approach and has a big lead over Johnson among moderates 48%-31%, a bit behind Barnes at this stage. 

In some of those key crosstab categories, neither Godlewski nor Nelson really stood out in the head-to-head matchups. In large part, in the areas in which they excelled, there were a lot of similarities with Barnes and Lasry. Each of the top four candidates do well with women, with educated voters, with lower income voters, with moderates, and with voters in Milwaukee and Madison, in the matchup against Johnson.

One poll result did stand out as a genuine surprise, though. You know what? We’ll give that one its own category…

RON JOHNSON HAS A COMMANDING LEAD WITH…YOUNG VOTERS?

Younger voters typically lean more Democratic. That’s the case in the head-to-head matchups with Evers and his potential Republican challengers, where the governor has a distinct lead in the 18-29 age group against each candidate — including a sizable one against Michels (+14).

But Ron Johnson has a big lead among 18-29 year old voters against every potential Democratic challenger. Take a look:

  • Barnes: 36% – Johnson: 49%
  • Lasry: 29% – Johnson: 53%
  • Godlewski: 38% – Johnson: 47%
  • Nelson: 38% – Johnson: 44%

This divide is obviously the most pronounced in the head-to-head with Lasry, but it’s showing up across the board. Anyone who has spent time watching online videos has been seeing a lot of Ron Johnson ads lately, but that can’t explain all of it. This is going to be an area to watch. 

WHO IS STILL UNDECIDED?

Close to a third of voters in each of these races are undecided. How they break will go a long  way toward deciding the race. So, who are they? What are the areas where there are more undecideds than average? Who will these campaigns be trying to reach over the next six weeks?

Let’s start with the Democrats running for Senate. Here are the areas in the crosstabs where more than 40% of voters remain undecided on their top choice: 18-29 (51%), Independent (50%), City of Milwaukee (43%), Madison media market (43%).

And then, the same for the undecided Republican (with a few outside that 40% mark): 30-44 (40%), moderate (41%), Madison media market (39%), Green Bay/Appleton media market (38%), highly educated (BA+) voters (39%).

It will be interesting to see where those undecided voters go in the coming weeks as the campaign comes into greater focus.

KLEEFISCH V. MICHELS

The Republican race is coming down to Kleefisch and Michels. Nicholson’s numbers have been flat, and Ramthun is falling off the radar. Perhaps the biggest story of this campaign cycle thus far is Kleefisch has lost her frontrunner status to someone campaigning for a matter of weeks after she has essentially been campaigning for 3.5 years. We covered much of this in a recent column on Kleefisch’s decline, but this poll confirms that she is no longer in the lead.

The two are neck-and-neck in many key areas – they’re even among men and women voters, even at higher income levels, and with ideological conservatives. Where they differ a bit is that Kleefisch is ahead with “very conservative” voters (35%-25%), while Michels is ahead with moderates (17%-28%). Kleefisch is also ahead significantly with independents (59%-20%). There’s also a bit of an age divide, with Kleefisch leading 18-29 (23%-14%) and 30-44 (25%-19%) age groups, and Michels with those 45-59 (23%-30%) and 60+ (30%-34%). 

But, as mentioned earlier, Kleefisch losing ground as undecideds begin to make up their mind is not a good sign for her. 

But at the same time, it’s tough to discern exactly what this all means, given how new Michels’ entry to the race is. There’s a lot still to play out here. 

THE ENTHUSIASM GAP

Earlier polling had suggested that any enthusiasm advantage that Republicans might have in this midterm year was a bit overstated. But now, it looks like there’s a bit of an advantage for the GOP, with 67% saying they’re “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with just 58% for Democrats. Combining the “very enthusiastic” and “somewhat enthusiastic” votes, though, it’s a bit more even — 87% for Republicans, 84% for Democrats. But logic suggests Republicans will have an advantage here, as the president’s opposing party almost always does in a midterm year. 

The Marquette pollsters also included a few more interesting looks at voter enthusiasm.

Here, we see the enthusiasm gap has a huge divide by age. This is fairly typical, of course — especially in a midterm year — but it is going to be a challenge to get younger people motivated to vote this year.

And below, we see modeling on how that enthusiasm could play out on election day this fall.

As is usually the case, lower turnout would benefit Republicans. I wonder why they’ve long been trying so hard to restrict access to the ballot? It’s a real mystery. 

POPULAR POLICIES ARE BEING IGNORED IN WISCONSIN

Gov. Tony Evers has called a great many special sessions in his time as governor, in efforts to get the Republican-controlled Wisconsin State Legislature to take up legislation that GOP leadership would otherwise ignore and deny even a public hearing to.

Two of these special sessions stand out, when you look at some of the polling data. 

In November 2019, Evers called a special session to take up some common sense gun control measures – universal background checks, and a “red flag” law (we covered this at the time). These laws, as they did then in the wake of other mass shootings, have overwhelming levels of support. For background checks, 79% are in favor, with just 16% opposed. For “red flag” laws, it’s now 81% in favor, 13% opposed. 

Even among Republicans, these issues have overwhelming majority support. On background checks, 66% of Republican voters are in favor (just 27% opposed), and with “red flag” laws, 67% of Republicans are in favor (just 25% opposed). 

Republicans didn’t even give these bills a minute of their time. As they always do with a special session from the Democratic governor, they refused to even debate the issue at hand, choosing instead to gavel in and gavel out of the session in seconds. 

They did the same this week on another issue that the vast majority of voters are on one side of – abortion. The new poll shows that 27% say it should be legal in all cases, 31% in most cases, 24% say it should be illegal in most cases, and just 11% say it should be illegal in all cases. So, instead of debating what it would mean to go to revert to an 1849 law that would institute a near-complete abortion ban, the legislature gavel-ed in and gavel-ed out again.

Even if Republicans wanted to take a hardline stance, and side with the 35% (on abortion) or with the 16% (on background checks), the bare minimum they could do is debate the bills that are being put in front of them. But this Republican-controlled legislature won’t even do that. 

Our state government is broken. Republicans did the breaking. Once again.

THE RECOMBOBULATION AREA’S FAVORITE POLL NUMBER

We have been tracking one curious poll number on Ron Johnson almost since the time we started The Recombobulation Area. I found it strange that even though he is our state’s senior Senator, has been in office since 2010, and has regularly been in national headlines, many voters did not yet have an opinion of Johnson.  

Well, that has changed. When we first noted this phenomenon, back in October 2019, 30% of voters were either in the “haven’t heard enough” or “don’t know” column when asked their opinion of Johnson.

Now, that combined number is down to just 16%. And as people have gotten to know Ron Johnson, particularly over the last two years, they’ve grown to dislike him more and more. His unfavorable numbers have climbed in that time from 29% to 46%, while his favorable number actually dropped in that time from 40% to 37%.

This can of course be attributed to a great many things since 2020 as Johnson has become even more of a mainstay in the day-to-day political news cycle, but one very nerdy Recombobulation Area reader decided to make this chart, adding one key data point.

Should we be taking credit for this shift? Certainly not. Will we? Oh, absolutely.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s also written for The Daily Beast, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He’s won 13 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.