Can Trump save Rep. Mary Miller?

Freshman U.S. Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL), who invoked Adolf Hitler at a Washington D.C. rally the day before the Jan. 6 insurrection, kicked off the new year celebrating Donald Trump’s endorsement for her reelection campaign.

The former president said Miller did “a fantastic job representing the people of Illinois,” and called her “a champion of our America First agenda.”

Miller said in a tweet she was “blessed” to receive the former president’s endorsement and promised, “to always be a fighter for the America First Agenda.”

Trump chose Miller over her primary competitor, U.S. Rep Rodney Davis (R-IL) of the pre-redistricting 13^th district.

Davis co-chaired Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign in Illinois and voted with the former president “nearly 90% of the time,” his campaign said in a statement responding to Miller entering the race.

But Trump’s decision may have come from a view that Davis just isn’t hardline enough.

According to metrics from FiveThirtyEight, Davis voted with Trump less than any other Illinois Republican, just 88.8% of the time. And he votes with President Biden about 21% of the time, more than three times as often as Miller.

The new 15^th district, drawn by Illinois Democrats, encompasses a large swath of Davis’ old district, but he loses some more moderate areas, including Bloomington and Springfield.

Davis voted to certify Biden’s victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Miller didn’t.

Davis received the endorsement 32 county chairmen in the newly drawn 15^th district and Republican incumbents Darin LaHood (IL-18) and Mike Bost (IL-12) — who represents Miller’s home address. But Davis’ voted record could still hinder him his new, more deeply red district.

Miller, meanwhile, drew sharp condemnation from both sides of the aisle last year when she invoked Hitler during the “Save the Republic Rally,” hosted in Washington D.C. by Moms for America on January 5, 2021.

During her remarks, Miller said, “If we win a few elections, we’re still going to be losing unless we win the hearts and minds of our children. This is the battle. Hitler was right on one thing. He said, ‘whoever has the youth, has the future.’”

She apologized four days later.

Donald Trump’s endorsement may not carry as much weight as it once did. His endorsement of Sean Parnell for Pennsylvania Senate flopped after Parnell withdrew from the race amid allegations of spousal and child abuse.

The former president backed Susan Wright in Texas’ sixth district, which includes parts of Fort Worth. Jake Ellzey won the run-off by 6.5%. And last quarter, Davis had more than twice as much cash on hand as Miller.

Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist and publisher of the center-right Bulwark website, told The Guardian that while Trump’s endorsement isn’t meaningless, it doesn’t necessarily carry the weight it once did.

“His endorsement is still worth something toward a certain percentage of the party,” Longwell said. “However, I don’t think his endorsement is as important, or doesn’t have as much impact as when he attacks you. But that doesn’t work everywhere.”

Follow Zach Cunning on Twitter @zcheartlandsig