Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., right, with Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., speaks to the media about the southern U.S. border, Wednesday, Feb., 2, 2022, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (File AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

We’re less than two months away from election day and Wisconsin is the most closely divided swing state in the nation. The race for U.S. Senate between Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes and the race for governor between Tony Evers and Tim Michels are both very close. So, every new Marquette Poll is going to be a pretty big deal to understand these races and the top issues going into Election Day. And as always, we’re here to break it all down.

Let’s dive in. 

First, the headline poll results for the two biggest statewide races.

In the race for Senate:

Ron Johnson: 49%

Mandela Barnes: 48%

In the race for governor:

Tony Evers: 47%

Tim Michels: 44%

Joan Beglinger: 5%

Undecided: 3%

(Note: For head-to-head polling, the Marquette poll focuses on results from “likely voters.” For things like favorability, approval rating, and polling on individual issues, they focus on “registered voters.” We’ve done the same here in this analysis.)

BARNES VS. JOHNSON

Since the August poll, the race for Senate has tightened. But that was expected. In last month’s poll, Barnes was up 52% to 45%, but as we broke down here, that didn’t mean Barnes was emerging as the favorite. He got a nice post-primary bounce, but most forecasters still characterized Johnson as the favorite then and that’s still the case now. 

The same fundamentals still apply. The history of midterm elections suggest a Republican advantage this year, Johnson is the incumbent and that gives him a boost, and Wisconsin is a 50-50 state. Ron Johnson has especially high unfavorable numbers, making him vulnerable, but Barnes remains the underdog, and now he has some work to do.

The biggest shift from August to September came from independents.

August with independents (likely voters):

Johnson: 40%

Barnes: 55%

September with independents:

Johnson: 48%

Barnes: 46%

Looking into the crosstabs, there are a number of other key areas areas* that saw movement in this poll. One was in the age breakdown. Generally in the Marquette poll, Democrats fare better with the 30-44 year old age group and Republicans tend to do their best with 45-59-year-olds. That’s largely still the case here, and there was little shift from August to September among those groups.

There was some movement with the oldest and youngest voters, though. The 60+ age group shows a shrinking lead for Barnes, going from 57%-41% in August to 50%-47% in September. And with the 18-29 age group, Johnson’s lead (yes, lead) grew from 48%-43% to 56% to 34%. Now, the September poll had a much smaller sample size for that particular age group, so the margin of error is greater. But this does reflect an ongoing trend in this race, one we’ve noted before: Johnson is doing well with younger voters. 

Barnes needs to improve here. As a younger candidate, he has the tools to do it, but he needs to show some movement with young voters who are typically more difficult to engage in midterm election years. In the favorability numbers for Barnes, more than 60% of voters age 18-29 don’t have an opinion of him, even as he enjoys a net favorability of plus-12, his best in any age group. This is an important constituency for Barnes, and he needs to let this group know who he is and secure their support before it’s too late. 

Perhaps it was a mistake on the part of the Barnes campaign to completely avoid discussion of student debt forgiveness this past month. In the 18-29 age group, 75% favor President Biden’s decision on debt relief, with 50% saying it’s something they “strongly favor,” and that’s true of both college graduates and those who did not graduate college in that age group. Overall, independents were slightly against the move – 46% in favor, 49% opposed – but not to an alarming degree, and Democrats overwhelmingly support the decision, with only 13% opposed. Supporting this issue could be a terrific way for Barnes to raise his profile with younger voters that have not yet warmed up to him, on an issue that is not going to sink him with independents.

Another area with a significant shift from August to September is along different education levels. In the August poll, Barnes led those who graduated high school as their highest level of education – 52%-44% – but that swung towards Johnson in this poll – 58% to 36%. 

Regionally, much remained fairly similar from one poll to the next, but the “Rest of state” category saw a shift from Johnson up just slightly (47%-46%) to Johnson with a clear lead (50%-42%).

So, to recap: The youngest and oldest Wisconsinites, non-college voters, and people outside the major media markets all moved toward Johnson in this poll.

After the August poll, one of the big questions for Barnes is how he’ll be viewed by people who did not yet know him. In last month’s poll, more than 40% did not yet have an opinion of the lieutenant governor, and his net favorability was plus-15. Now, that no opinion number is 34%, and his net favorability is just plus-1.

That’s still far better than Johnson, of course. His net favorability is minus-8, with 47% of voters viewing him unfavorably (and still 14% of registered voters who do not yet have an opinion of Wisconsin’s senior Senator). 

But just as an especially good poll for Barnes in August didn’t mean he was the frontrunner, this new poll showing a more even race doesn’t mean Johnson is on track to run away with this, either. 

EVERS VS. MICHELS

In the gubernatorial race, Tony Evers is facing different headwinds as the incumbent in the race, with a slight advantage in the polls. It’s been close, but Evers has led every poll against Michels thus far. 

He also has an advantage with independent voters, leading 45% to 39% (with right-wing independent candidate Joan Beglinger – who ended her campaign and endorsed Michels, but will still be on the ballot – receiving the support of 11% of independents). 

When Marquette poll director Charles Franklin joined The Recombobulation Area for a recent event, I asked him who of the two incumbents had a better chance of winning re-election, he said it’s “easily Evers.”

So, what changed from August to September in this poll?

The education divide between Republicans and Democrats that has become a hallmark of the Trump Era became more stark. Michels is up 51%-30% among those with a high school diploma as their highest education level, a shift from 47%-41% in the August poll. Those with a college degree increased their support for Evers very slightly (up to 52%-38%), and those with some college in their background now favor the governor (47%-40%, from 40%-43%). 

Evers still has a huge lead among moderates, and that lead also saw a slight increase, from plus-25 to plus-28. Only 26% of moderates favor Michels.

Michels also has a problem with rising unfavorable numbers. Overall, 34% have a favorable opinion of the Republican candidate, with 39% viewing him unfavorably. And 27% of voters don’t yet have an opinion of him. 

Women, in particular, do not have a favorable opinion of Michels. He’s at 29%-42%, a net minus-13. He’s also under water with independents, 28%-35%, and with moderates, 19%-46%. His numbers with independents and moderates got worse from August to September. And the only region with a net-positive opinion of him is the Milwaukee suburbs. 

Evers, on the other hand, continues to have strong numbers with his favorability. He’s a net-positive at all income levels, positive with independents, and a net plus-23 with moderates. His overall job approval ticked down a bit, to 44% approve – 47% disapprove, but that’s only the second net-negative approval rating he’s seen as governor, and last time, that number proved to be an outlier. The one area where Michels does have the clear edge is with non-college voters, which has been key to Republican success in states like Wisconsin. 

Like any race in Wisconsin, this one is going to be close. But right now, you’d rather be Evers than Michels. 

Wisconsin has a significant gender gap in its politics

Wisconsin always seems to have a fairly stark gender gap in its polling and politics. But with these two top races, there is quite the divide. With abortion rights issues now paramount in the wake of the Dobbs decision, this will be an important part of how these races take shape. Let’s take a look at where things are currently.

Tony Evers vs. Tim Michels

Men: Evers 40% – Michels 51% 

Women: Evers 53% – Michels 38%

Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson

Men: Barnes 40% – Johnson 58%

Women: Barnes 55% – Johnson 42%

This also shows up in the favorability ratings for these candidates.

Tony Evers

Men: 42% favorable – 49% unfavorable

Women: 48% favorable – 41% unfavorable

Tim Michels

Men: 38% favorable – 36% unfavorable

Women: 29% favorable – 42% unfavorable

Mandela Barnes

Men: 29% favorable – 41% unfavorable

Women: 37% favorable – 25% unfavorable

Ron Johnson

Men: 44% favorable – 42% unfavorable

Women: 35% favorable – 51% unfavorable

 

Women polled slightly higher in the question on likelihood of voting, saying that 77% of women are “absolutely certain” to vote in this election, compared with 74% of men. And 63% of women say they are “very concerned” about abortion policy, compared to just 44% of men who say the same on that issue.

As campaigns compete for voters, it will be interesting to see the role women will play in the final stretch of this race.

Abortion numbers continue to be overwhelming

Wisconsin voters are evenly divided on a great many issues. This isn’t one of them.

Only 30% of voters favor the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, with 63% opposed. And on exceptions for rape and incest, the results are even more overwhelming – 83% say the state should allow for exceptions, only 10% opposed.

Even 70% of Republican voters are in favor of exceptions. Even 63% of “very conservative” voters are in favor of exceptions. The polling just isn’t even close on this one.

With Tim Michels having said he’s opposed to any exceptions for rape and incest, he is especially vulnerable on this issue. Given 1849 law that’s on the books now at the state level, this will certainly be in focus. And Ron Johnson has co-sponsored several versions of a national abortion ban, and has been all over the place in comments on this issue, saying women should move, and recently suggesting Wisconsin decide through a statewide referendum, which is not how any of this works in Wisconsin.  

If there’s any issue for Democrats in Wisconsin to go all-in on in the final stretch of this campaign, it’s this one. 

Biden and Trump, looming over the midterms

While Biden’s approval rating has ticked up nationally, it’s still quite bad in Wisconsin. He’s at 40% approve to 55% disapprove, and with independents, he’s at just 35% approve to 60% disapprove. That factor, along with inflation being the top issue for voters in this poll, continue to be the main reasons to suggest that Republicans will do well in Wisconsin this fall. 

However, Donald Trump still looms large over this race. He endorsed Michels and Ron Johnson has been one of the former president’s biggest allies in Congress. And Trump’s favorability rating in Wisconsin is awful. Just 38% favorable to 58% unfavorable. With independents, it’s just 32% favorable to 63% unfavorable. With moderates, it’s just 20% favorable to 74% unfavorable. 

While a midterm year with an unpopular president typically gives the advantage to the party not in the White House, Trump’s continued presence and likelihood to run in 2024 gives the 2022 midterm a component we haven’t seen in some time in American politics, making things all the more difficult to predict in this increasingly irregular midterm election year.

Less than 55 days until election day.

*For this portion of the poll comparisons, we’re using registered voters instead of likely voters because the likely voter dataset is not available from August.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s also written for The Daily Beast, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He’s won 13 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.