Forecasters: Texas should expect drought, high temps, El Niño

Memorial Day is considered the unofficial beginning of summer in the United States, with many Texans keeping an eye on what the weather has in store.

Federal forecasters said there is a 40% chance of a “near-normal” hurricane season for Texas and the rest of the Gulf and East coasts, and are more concerned about what the development of an El Nino could bring.

Brad Pugh, meteorologist at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, said before El Nino’s arrival, drought is still a factor for the Southwest.

“The seasonal drought outlook, which is valid through the end of August, calls for persistence of ongoing drought through much of New Mexico and Texas,” Pugh reported. “Although we are forecasting improving drought conditions over the northeast Texas panhandle.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting between 12 and 17 named tropical storms will form this season. One to four of those storms could become hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour. Much of Texas is considered vulnerable to the impacts of storms, made worse by rising sea levels.

El Nino is a natural climate pattern, but could send global average temperatures soaring to a record high.

Johnna Infanti, also a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, said the chance for it to develop is about 55%, likely producing the chance for excessive rain and snow starting in the fall.

“So with the El Nino, we expect a transition between the May through July season,” Infanti noted. “We’re expecting that to form during the May through July season and we’re expecting that to persist into winter.”

As might be expected because of climate change, NOAA predicts this summer will bring hotter-than-average temperatures across most U.S. states, including Texas.