Pennsylvania Democrats declare victory after tight special election in Trump+18 state House district

Democrat Brandon Dukes has declared victory after a special election in Butler County’s 12th state House district. Unofficial results have him leading by 88 votes, as of 12:15 p.m on Wednesday.

The Associated Press has yet to call the race. As of Wednesday morning, the county elections bureau’s computation board was meeting to go over provisional elections and write-ins, though there do not appear to be enough outstanding votes to affect the outcome.

“We want to count every vote, every provisional, every overseas voter, but based on these results, I have nothing but gratitude for the support of my friends, family, staff and volunteers who have supported me through this entire journey,” Dukes said. “We can now do so much more in the State House to deliver real wins for working families.”

But Dukes will have to continue campaigning. He’s set to face his opponent, Republican Scott Timko, in a rematch in November’s general election.

Timko did not respond to a request for comment.

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Bob Bozzuto, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania House Republican Campaign Committee, said, “Regardless of yesterday’s results, the candidates have to regroup and prepare for a competitive General Election that will have significantly more voter turnout. The General Election starts today with Scott Timko reaching out to voters, building a winning coalition, and holding Brandon Dukes accountable for his extreme positions that he continues to hide from voters.”

Still, the victory was a major boon for Pennsylvania Democrats, who are hoping to build momentum going into a series of key elections this fall.

The district, which was previously represented by Stephenie Scialabba before she resigned in March, has not elected a Democrat to the Pennsylvania House in more than 20 years. And voters there elected President Donald Trump by an 18% margin in 2024. 

Tuesday’s results represent a major shift.

“Tonight’s result not only shows what can be accomplished when Democrats are willing to fight everywhere, but it sets the stage for this November’s midterm elections,” Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Eugene DePasquale said in a statement. “Pennsylvanians across the political spectrum are sick and tired of Republicans’ chaotic, corrupt, and cost-raising agenda — and they’re ready to reject them at the polls and elect Democrats up and down the ballot in historic fashion.”

The sentiment was echoed by Gov. Josh Shapiro.

“Pennsylvanians are rising up and using their power to combat the chaos, cruelty, and corruption — and we’re not slowing down,” he posted on the social media platform X.

Timko, who campaigned on lowering taxes, also faced criticism when it was reported an LLC he’s associated with owes over $42,000 in unpaid taxes. He told the Butler Eagle the liens appearing online were the result of “a state administrative error that will be resolved.”

At least until November, Dukes’ victory expands Democrats’ narrow majority in the House to 103-100. But the rematch may prove difficult.

According to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, there are nearly twice as many registered Republican voters than Democratic ones in the 12th Legislative District. And less than one-third of registered voters turned out for Tuesday’s election.

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That’s a sharp downturn from 2024 when Scialabba, the incumbent Republican, won the seat with nearly 65% of the vote. Then, over 43,000 people voted, compared to less than 17,000 in the special election.

Sydney Robinson, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee, said, “we are treating this now as an incumbent-protect seat, and we’re planning to spend accordingly.”

Pennsylvania Democrats hope the increasing unpopularity of the Trump administration will help propel them to victories across the state in November. Along with expanding their House majority and reelecting Shapiro, the party is looking to flip four state Senate seats. That would give Democrats a trifecta — control of both chambers of the general assembly and the Governor’s Residence — for the first time since the early 1990s.

So far, they’ve been successful in special elections. 

Last year, Democratic Sen. James Malone unexpectedly flipped a state Senate seat in a Lancaster County district Trump won by more than 15% in 2024.

“We are still 70-odd days away from our state-wide Election Day in November,” Dukes said in a statement. “Between now and then, I won’t take a single vote for granted  –  I will be out knocking doors and connecting directly with voters.”