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Michigan’s gubernatorial race shakes up as Johnson enters chat, Benson’s lane clears

The sea is getting choppy for candidates coasting on the Republican side of Michigan’s gubernatorial primary race, with a familiar name — Perry Johnson — raising his sails and promising to spend big money fast.

Johnson announced Monday that he was joining the GOP hunt for the governor’s office, with a campaign staff made up of Republican power players, Trump associates and a war chest forged from his personal wealth. Notably, Johnson told Nolan Finley of The Detroit News that he plans to spend $9 million of his own money over the next 60 days.

The Republican businessman and self-avowed “quality guru” ran for governor in 2022 before being tossed off the ballot in a fake petition signature scandal and then an abortive presidential run in 2024.

Two political and public relations consultants who spoke to Michigan Advance for this story said that Johnson and his millions, if not a sure-fire winner, will undoubtedly inject some energy into the sleepy GOP primary race, and could sharpen the candidacy of U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township if he is indeed still the frontrunner come spring and summer.

Johnson’s inclusion may not undo the gains already made by James, but it could bring him back down to earth and force him to start campaigning more aggressively to protect his lead. James for several months now has been running more of a prevent defensive campaign scheme as his name ID elevated him to the head of the pack, but that is starting to change with Perry aiming to punch holes in his hull.

That change was evident last week as an ad war, that more than likely was started by Johnson ahead of his announcement on Monday, forced James to swing back against accusations of disloyalty to President Donald Trump.

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There are currently six other candidates in the Republican hunt aside from Johnson and James, including state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox and former House Speaker Tom Leonard, to name a few. Johnson’s entry may also force those candidates to start spending the limited cash they’ve banked up through 2025.

Jason Roe, a longtime Republican strategist and a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party, told the Advance that some of those single-digit polling candidates need James to come down a bit if they, too, are going to rise up in the ranks. Johnson’s messaging on James could help to do that, and not just for the benefit of the Johnson campaign.

“We’re also getting into the time of the cycle where the other Republicans should start spending. Now, can they spend is another question,” Roe said. “It doesn’t look like Tom Leonard has enough resources to spend in a meaningful way. Nesbitt does, but he might want to husband those resources a little bit longer.”

Roe said that Cox has money, but like Johnson, it’s personal money.

“Is he really willing to spend his personal money?” Roe said. “I think he will spend $1 million to $2 million, but I don’t think anyone’s convinced he’ll spend much more than that. I don’t think he’s raised really enough to add to that in a meaningful way.”

Overall, the rope-a-dope strategy employed by James thus far might fall by the wayside with Johnson nipping at his heels.

John Sellek, chief strategist and CEO of the Harbor Strategic firm, said Johnson certainly has the marketing budget to make his case, but it remained unclear if he had a new product to sell.

“We’ve seen the product for sale before, twice, for governor and when he ran for president,” Sellek said. “It didn’t go anywhere. So, this is not a new breath of fresh air from the business community that we need to watch and say, ‘can this person catch fire?’”

Sellek also agreed that the sheer amount of money he’s promising to spend in a short period of time will ultimately test the spending discipline and planning the other GOP candidates have worked out prior to Johnson jumping. That was particularly true of the candidates who are not John James.

“Aric Nesbitt has done a respectable job fundraising, but still, last time I looked, is at around $2 million,” Sellek said. “When you normally run a statewide campaign, you have to start at election day and work your way backwards, and $2 million, while a really respectable amount of fundraising for him … that’s not enough to start now.”

Sellek noted that Leonard is trying to jump on the AI data center issue, which puts him in a different lane in terms of things he can fundraise off of, but none of the candidates were necessarily counting on being up against someone else who would try to make themselves the main alternative to James, much like Johnson is doing now.

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“Perry Johnson is simultaneously going to boost his own name ID, and I know they would say they have nothing to do with it, but team Johnson is attacking John James at the same time,” Sellek said, referencing the ad war that started last week. “He’s going to make a real intense, rapid attempt to rise to second place and take a chunk out of John James.”

While Johnson might have money, one big question is whether he can get Trump’s endorsement. The Johnson team is reportedly staffed with former Trump campaign folks. He’s also getting strategy and campaign advice from Republican pot-stirrer and convention delegate guru John Yob, who has been close to the White House in Trump’s second term. Johnson told Finley and the News that Trump was aware that he was running and that he wouldn’t endorse him unless he could get his poll numbers up to 20% or above — a tall order in a race with several candidates and at least three who have clear shots to make the ballot.

Benson on cruise control with Gilchrist out, but Duggan is sharpening her iron

But Johnson’s arrival wasn’t the only storm affecting the waters of the gubernatorial race.

Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist’s exit from the Democratic primary ultimately opened a wide lane for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson to speed ahead, leaving just Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson as an opponent, one without much cash and a more difficult path to victory.

All of those changes were happening as independent candidate Mike Duggan continued to make waves in January as his own battle cruiser charted new territory up north.

People say a Detroit mayor can’t relate to people up north.

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Geography changes. Skills translate. pic.twitter.com/v5aZIhkEX3

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Duggan was among candidates who attended a political confab and gubernatorial forum in Traverse City last week, where he was the surprising winner of an unscientific poll of attendees, which asked who among the candidates present might be best for the city and the region.

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Sellek said that Benson would normally be feeling like she’s living the dream in the sense that her initial opponents never materialized and started backing off before the race really began. But like Johnson, the independent Duggan presents a serious challenge to the pool of voters she might expect to net in the general election.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Benson in the long run.

“He’s already taken a large number of traditionally Democratic endorsements from her,” Sellek said, adding that the vice was tightened on any other Democratic hemorrhaging from Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel. “I often buy into the idea that competition sharpens the blade.”

In that way, Benson and James are now in similar boats, Roe said.

“If you’re a good candidate and you’re the leader, you have an opportunity to get out there and show people that you are, and go and earn it and own it,” Roe added. “I think it would be very hard for the Democratic Governors Association to start focusing on the threat that Duggan is to her with Garlin Gilchrist still in the race. Now, with Gilchrist moving over, this allows Benson and the DGA to draw a contrast with Duggan.”

Roe said there will undoubtedly be a real fight in Detroit between Duggan and Benson, but that’s why Duggan is outsourcing his Detroit comeback message to other parts of the state — much like Traverse City.

“Duggan is the best retail campaigner of any of the candidates in the field,” Roe said. “He can spend outside of Detroit for a good amount of time and risk losing a little bit of his vote share there in the short term, because I think he can get it back at a later time; whereas, Benson’s got to go in there and convince these people who already know Duggan.”


Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jon King for questions: info@michiganadvance.com.

This article, “Michigan’s gubernatorial race shakes up as Johnson enters chat, Benson’s lane clears,” has been republished from the Michigan Advance under Creative Commons license CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.

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