2024 Heartland Election Ratings: Key races to watch in the Midwest

Michigan

U.S. Senate race:

TBD (likely Elissa Slotkin (D)) vs. TBD (likely Mike Rogers (R))

Designation: Leans Democrat

After successfully defending her congressional seat in 2022, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is seeking Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring and leaving the seat open for a new candidate, and Slotkin is the favorite in the race so far.

After raising $10 million for reelection in 2022, Slotkin has picked up where she left off and already raised more than $15 million for her Senate bid. Although Slotkin has two primary challengers, her overwhelming fundraising numbers make her the clear frontrunner. Her primary opponent, Hill Harper, an actor best known for his role as Dr. Marcus Andrews on “The Good Doctor,” has never held political office. A Mitchell Research and Communications poll on June 3 showed Slotkin with a 45-point lead over Harper, 53-8.

On the other side is a litany of potential GOP candidates, but Emerson College polling suggests an edge for former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who has worked in the private sector since retiring from Congress in 2015. He has attempted to paint himself as a China hawk despite personally benefitting from work to expand the influence of Chinese companies in America. His bizarre video announcing his campaign launch featured an Estonian, instead of Michigan, family.

Slotkin has consistently maintained a narrow edge over Rogers in polling.

7^th Congressional District race:

Curtis Hertel (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

This will be the second cycle in a row where former state Rep. Tom Barrett (R) seeks Michigan’s 7^th Congressional District seat. Barrett ran an unsuccessful campaign against Slotkin in 2022 but faces a non-incumbent  candidate this time in former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D). Barrett sparked controversy earlier this year when he said that abortion shouldn’t be as big of an issue in 2024 since his opponent is a man this time instead of a woman. Barrett has also faced criticism for attacking his opponent on raising taxes, despite voting to raise the Michigan gas tax himself in 2015.

With both men running uncontested in their respective primaries, Hertel and Barrett will undoubtedly face each other in November.

 

Minnesota

U.S. Senate race:

Incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. TBD (possibly Royce White (R))

Designation: Safe Democrat

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) will defend her U.S. Senate seat in 2024. Although her seat is considered safe for Democrats, the Minnesota Republican Party made a surprise move by endorsing former NBA player Royce White.

After leaving major league basketball in 2018, White became a controversial right-wing commentator and ran for Congress in 2022 for the seat held by Ilhan Omar. Although he got former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, White lost the GOP primary election to Cicely Davis by 10.8 percentage points.

­­The list of liabilities for Royce White is long. In addition to promoting conspiracy theories about a variety of topics, White has reportedly described himself on X as “sexist, Misogynist, Homophobic, Transphobic, Xenophobic and antisemitic.” A recent report from the Star Tribune highlighted campaign finance records that show White used thousands of dollars in leftover campaign funds in 2022 for strip club visits and limousine services. He later argued that the campaign expenditures were for food at the strip club, not strippers.

White will face a crowded field of GOP challengers during the Minnesota primary election on Aug. 13.

Montana

U.S. Senate race:

Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs Tim Sheehy (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

The Montana Senate race is considered a toss-up, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester looking to retain his seat for a fourth consecutive term this November. Known as a moderate Democrat, the 67-year-old Tester is known for his work to pass veterans support bills and recent support of border security legislation.

The Republican nominee to face Tester in November is political newcomer Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and owner of the aerial firefighting company Bridger Aerospace. Since announcing his campaign, Sheehy has faced criticism over a variety of issues like his flip-flop against climate change, his wish to privatize health care and him denouncing student loan borrowers. Sheehy grew up in Minnesota, not Montana, and has been caught flubbing his rural roots. He grew up in a multi-million-dollar lake house in Shoreview, Minn. As The Daily Beast noted, the property is “just three miles from a Trader Joe’s market — much closer than the nearest Fleet Farm, a fishing, hunting, and farm supply store popular in the state.”

Recent polling suggests an extremely close race in a contest that could determine which political party controls the U.S. Senate.

 

Ohio

U.S. Senate race:

Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno

Designation: Toss-Up

In March, MAGA candidate Bernie Moreno notched the Republican nomination for Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. Moreno is a former owner of several Mercedes-Benz dealerships before he began selling them off for millions in the late 2010s. Since launching his campaign and securing the GOP nomination, Moreno has faced criticism for flip flopping on several positions, including his opinion of Trump. Although Moreno emphatically supports Trump today, he referred to the Republican nominee as a “maniac” in 2016 and vowed to never support him. However, Moreno accepted Trump’s endorsement last August after spending thousands to cater an event at Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago.

Moreno will challenge incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election, who has held the seat since he defeated Mike DeWine in 2006. Brown has fended off right-wing challengers in the Buckeye State, seemingly impervious to broader political trends in the state. He most recently defeated Republican Jim Renacci by 7 points in 2018.

 

9^th Congressional District race:

Incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) will seek her 22^nd consecutive term in Congress this November, with Republicans looking to flip the now-vulnerable seat. After congressional redistricting in 2020, Kaptur’s seat became more competitive, but she was still able to retain it in 2022 against MAGA candidate J.R. Majewski.

Majewski was on the Republican ballot this cycle but dropped out in March after making controversial comments mocking Special Olympics athletes. State Rep. Derek Merrin (R) notched the Republican nomination in March with the backing of Trump. While serving in the Ohio Legislature, Merrin, who invests in real estate,

 

13^th Congressional District race:

Incumbent Emilia Sykes (D) vs. Kevin Coughlin (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

The 13^th Congressional District is the second race in Ohio listed as a toss-up, with incumbent Emilia Sykes (D) seeking her second term in Congress. Sykes previously served in the Ohio House of Representatives from 2015-2021, and as the chamber’s minority leader from 2019-2021.

Sykes will face former state legislator Kevin Coughlin, who served in both chambers from 1997-2010. Coughlin is returning to the political arena after working as a lobbyist for the last decade. While campaigning this year, Coughlin has declared himself a proponent of cutting Social Security and restricting abortion. Recent reporting also uncovered an interview from the 90’s where a college-aged Coughlin proclaimed himself a “homophobe” and that he has a problem with homosexuality.

 

Pennsylvania

U.S. Senate race:

Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs. David McCormick (R)

Designation: Leans Democrat

Sen. Bob Casey (D) is attempting to secure a fourth term in the U.S. Senate in November, when he will face former Bridgewater CEO David McCormick. Although he was appointed to serve in the Commerce Department under the Bush administration, McCormick has never been elected to public office, and this will be his second Senate bid in as many cycles. McCormick failed to win the GOP primary in 2022, where he lost to former daytime television host Dr. Mehmet Oz. McCormick returned in 2024 and won his primary in April, securing his path to the November general election.

Over the course of his campaign, McCormick’s track record in the private sector has surfaced, where he oversaw significant outsourcing of American jobs from his home state of Pennsylvania. McCormick also rents a $16 million mansion in Connecticut, garnering comparisons to his former opponent Dr. Oz regarding whether he actually resides in Pennsylvania full-time.

More recently, McCormick has campaigned with Jan. 6 organizer Doug Mastriano and agreed with the position that abortion is a money laundering operation.

In 28 polls over the span of more than a year, starting in March 2023, David McCormick has never led in the race.

 

7^th Congressional District race:

Incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D) vs. state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

Rep. Susan Wild (D) has held a seat in Congress since 2018, initially in Pennsylvania’s 15^th District but currently in the 7^th District after the 2020 census. From September 2022 to January 2023, Wild chaired the House Ethics Committee and continues to serve as a ranking member after the GOP took control of the House of Representatives in 2022.

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) was first elected to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2012, where he serves as the Republican chair of the Labor & Industry Committee. This will be Mackenzie’s third time seeking a congressional seat, and the first time he has made it past the primary election. He ran for Pennsylvania’s 15^th District seat in 2018 but withdrew after the state Supreme Court drew new district lines. Mackenzie also withdrew from the primary election in 2022.

During this year’s primary election on April 23, Mackenzie edged out the win against businessman Kevin Dellicker by 4,708 votes.

It was recently uncovered that Mackenzie lied about his age on Tinder, saying in 2020 that he was 29 years old when he was actually 37.

 

8^th Congressional District race:

Incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) vs. Rob Bresnahan (R)

Designation: Toss-Up

Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) has represented a chunk of northeastern Pennsylvania since 2013, when he was elected to serve in what was the state’s 17^th District. During his time in Congress, Cartwright has advocated for gun safety, gay marriage and Medicare for All legislation.

Cartwright will defend his vulnerable seat to 33-year-old political newcomer Rob Bresnahan. Bresnahan inherited his grandfather’s construction company after working as an executive in family business since he was 19. While campaigning, Bresnahan dissed the city of Scranton, saying “that is not what we are.” Scranton is the largest city in the district that he is running to represent, with a population of 76,000 people.

Pennsylvania GOP congressional candidate Rob Bresnahan insults Scranton, a city of 76,000 people in the district he is seeking to represent:

“If you look at the city of Scranton … That is not what we are.” pic.twitter.com/psUKjOSBQx

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) April 1, 2024

 

10^th Congressional District race:

Incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D)

Designation: Toss-Up

Rep. Scott Perry (R) will defend his seat against former new anchor Janelle Stelson for what is seen as one of the most vulnerable Republican districts this cycle. Perry has deep ties to Trump’s MAGA circle, and he served as the chair of the House Freedom Caucus from 2022-2024. Perry was also involved with Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.

Perry reportedly asked Trump for a presidential pardon after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and he was later subpoenaed and refused to testify in front of the Jan. 6 Committee. After federal agents searched Trump’s property at Mar-a-Lago in 2022, Perry confirmed that the FBI had seized his cell phone. His phone records and text messages were later given to the Department of Justice as evidence for their Jan. 6 probe.

Polls suggest it will be a challenge for Perry to retain his seat, as Stelson within one percentage point in a recent Franklin Marshall Poll.

 

Wisconsin

U.S. Senate race:

Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)

Designation: Likely Democrat

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is up for reelection in 2024, and she will defend her seat against California baking CEO Eric Hovde in November. Hovde ran for the same seat in 2012 but failed to make it past the primary election. Now, Hovde is the Republican nominee, and his campaign has already seen significant setbacks since its launch in February.

Hovde’s comments from years past have resurfaced, seeing him criticize the alcohol industry, single mothers, Native Americans and most recently the elderly. During a radio appearance in March, Hovde asserted that “almost nobody in a nursing home is in a point to vote.” After these comments, Baldwin’s polling numbers saw a notable increase while Hovde garnered criticism from Democrats and Republicans alike for repeatedly stepping on political rakes or ditching Wisconsin voters for a beach day in California.

Fmr. Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke (R) on Eric Hovde’s campaign:

“He said seniors shouldn’t be allowed to vote because they don’t really have all their faculties … You can’t talk like that! What the hell is wrong with you? … He’s on his third position on abortion.” pic.twitter.com/eSC3fM3KM5

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) May 16, 2024

Baldwin has supported policies like Medicare for All, gun violence reduction policies and LGBTQ rights during her time in Congress.

 

3^rd Congressional District race:

Incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. TBD

Designation: Likely Republican

Freshman congressman Derrick Van Orden is seeking another two years in office after a tumultuous first term. Before even being elected, the former Navy SEAL attended the controversial “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021. Van Orden denied taking part in the subsequent storming the Capitol building, but photographic evidence seems to show him in a restricted area on that day.

After joining Congress, Van Orden garnered backlash for an incident inside the Capitol, where he lambasted a group of high-school-aged Senate pages in a possibly alcohol-induced tirade.

Per a source, here’s a photo from last night of a bunch of alcohol in Van Orden’s office. Van Orden and staff were heard partying loudly before he cursed out a group of teenage Senate pages pic.twitter.com/W6KF35nfWt

— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) July 27, 2023

More recently, Van Orden and his GOP colleagues on the House Agriculture Committee gave a glowing endorsement to the most recent FARM Bill. The proposed legislation would cut billions worth of food stamp benefits, slash animal welfare protections and ban most delta-8 TCH products.

Blueprint Polling, one of the few public polls released for Wisconsin’s 3^rd District, shows the race within the margin of error.

 

8^th Congressional District race:

TBD (possibly Tony Weid (R)) vs. TBD (presumptively Dr. Kristin Lyerly (D))

Designation: Leans Republican

In April, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) prematurely resigned from his position in Congress, leaving the House Republicans with a thin one-seat majority. Since Gallagher resigned after the April 9 cutoff, the vacancy cannot be filled until the November General election.

On the Democratic side is Dr. Kristin Lyerly, an OB-GYN who unsuccessfully ran against state Rep. John Macco (R) in 2020. Lyerly has since advocated for reproductive freedom and affordable healthcare, especially in wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. Lyerly launched her campaign after Gallagher made his intentions of leaving Congress clear, saying that a path is clearer for a Democrat like her to win.

Although Lyerly is running unopposed in her primary election on Aug. 13, flipping the 8^th Congressional District seat will be a challenge. The race is currently designated safe for Republicans, and Gallagher easily retained the seat for four straight terms. Trump also won the district by 16 percentage points in 2020 while U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won it by 18 in his reelection bid in 2022. State Sen. Andre Jacque, former business owner Tony Wied and former Wisconsin Senate President Roger Roth are all on the GOP primary ballot.

While Jacques and Roth are more experienced, Wied seemingly has the support of Trump. Although he hasn’t received an endorsement, Wied did get a fundraising boost when Donald Trump Jr. spoke at a rally for Wied.